admb_real:two_qs_cohorts_per_run
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admb_real:two_qs_cohorts_per_run [2010/09/20 07:47] – lennartfr | admb_real:two_qs_cohorts_per_run [2010/09/20 10:39] (current) – lennartfr | ||
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In this section we test [[admb_real: | In this section we test [[admb_real: | ||
+ | We test one through four cohorts, all starting with the cohort born 1994. The results are given below. The VPA estimates are solid lines with stars at each data point. The estimates of our model are solid lines with 95% confidence intevals, marked with circles at their endpoints. | ||
+ | |||
+ | |||
+ | === Summary === | ||
+ | :!: The VPA estimates are contained in the confidence intervals //if we estimate one cohort//, otherwise this is relatively rare. | ||
+ | |||
+ | :!: All our population level estimates are higher than the corresponding VPA estimates. | ||
+ | |||
+ | :!: For all but one of these runs, the mortality is very close to its upper bound of 0.5, which implies that only a fraction of exp(-0.5) = 0.6 of the individuals that escape catch survive to the next year. | ||
+ | |||
+ | :!: As the number of cohorts increases, the catchabilities frequently become very low, resulting in enourmous N0 estimates and standard deviations. | ||
+ | |||
+ | :!: :!: :!: //Adding a single cohort may result in a dramatic change of the estimates!// | ||
==== First cohort born in 1994 ==== | ==== First cohort born in 1994 ==== | ||
- | We test one through four cohorts, all starting with the cohort born 1994. The results are given below: | + | |
^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
Line 44: | Line 57: | ||
0.499999858299 | 0.499999858299 | ||
</ | </ | ||
- | |4 |{{: | + | |4 |{{: |
+ | # N0: | ||
| | ||
# q02: | # q02: | ||
Line 55: | Line 69: | ||
0.499999811181 | 0.499999811181 | ||
</ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== First cohort born in 1995 ==== | ||
+ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
+ | |1 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.920990967088 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.499999623325 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |2 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.964639320769 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.499996084223 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |3 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.808179492251 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.499999425716 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |4 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.781517782844 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.498264587840 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== First cohort born in 1996 ==== | ||
+ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
+ | |1 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.10516259475 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.232826691724 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |2 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.764979137800 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.446238565249 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |3 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.764252477712 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.477038134661 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |4 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.696948684580 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.448148822839 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==== First cohort born in 1997 ==== | ||
+ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
+ | |1 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.617375605607 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.431388898483 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |2 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.713128709914 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.493607769179 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |3 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.693054885474 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.432873809737 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |4 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q02: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q3plus: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.748683287864 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.413269330095 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |||
+ |
admb_real/two_qs_cohorts_per_run.1284968852.txt.gz · Last modified: 2010/09/20 07:47 by lennartfr