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====== Model estimating 3 year olds and older --- monotonic survey data =====

FIXME **The plots in this section contain the following errors:** 

    * The labels on the x-axis and the legend are three years older than they should be. (E.g. if it says 1997 it should be 1994.)
    * The VPA plots (solid lines with stars) are of the wrong cohorts and should be disregarded.

In this section we repeat the experiments of [[admb_real:n3_cohorts_per_run|the model estimating only 3 year olds and older]], with the difference being that the survey indices which are smaller in magnitude than subsequent indices for the same cohort are deleted. 

This experiment is similar to [[admb_real:monotonizing_surveys|this experiment]] for [[admb_real:admb_real#model_with_two_separate_catchabilities|the model with two catchabilities]].
=== Summary ===

:!: The estimates for this experiments are much more consistent than for the experiments with nonmonotone survey data. However, they are also usually lower, as can be seen by comparing the following table with the corresponding table [[admb_real:n3_cohorts_per_run|here]].

^ N3<sub>birthyear</sub> ^ N3<sub>1994</sub> ^ N3<sub>1995</sub> ^ N3<sub>1996</sub> ^ N3<sub>1997</sub>  ^ N3<sub>1998</sub> ^ N3<sub>1999</sub> ^ N3<sub>2000</sub>  ^
^ Single estimate |0.516109 |  0.289033 | 0.243818 | 0.443256 | | | | 
^ Multiple estimates | 0.513446 | 0.298678  | | | | | | 
| | 0.509808 | 0.297279 | 0.250449 | | | | | 
| |0.504020 | 0.294245 | 0.247969 | 0.484308 | | | | 
| | | 0.286587 | 0.241295 | | | | | 
| | |  0.293470 | 0.247051 | 0.483911 | | | | 
| | | 0.371853 | 0.311810 | 0.615438 | 0.769912 | | | 
| | | |  0.268437 | 0.529506 | | | | 
| | | | 0.401105 | 0.812412 | 1.04852 | | |
| | | | 0.281835 | 0.552476 | 0.683516 | 0.566695 | |
| | | | | 0.645252 | 0.809032 | | | 
| | | | | 0.433931 |0.524806 |0.413599 | | 
| | | | | 0.406884 | 0.489518 | 0.380431 | 0.442819 |

==== First cohort born 1994 ====

^Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_94_94.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -3.37978  Maximum gradient component = 1.95145e-06
# N0:
 0.516109
# q:
 0.475306
# logs:
-0.922473038606
# M:
0.229629359685
 </file> |
|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_94_95.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -7.88727  Maximum gradient component = 3.20101e-06
# N0:
 0.513446 0.298678
# q:
 0.452489
# logs:
-1.02581794259
# M:
0.227541762701
 </file> |
|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_94_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -12.6473  Maximum gradient component = 3.05992e-05
# N0:
 0.509808 0.297279 0.250449
# q:
 0.414260
# logs:
-1.07487783663
# M:
0.224407491868
 </file> |
|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_94_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -20.4626  Maximum gradient component = 0.000311131
# N0:
 0.504020 0.294245 0.247969 0.484308
# q:
 0.417562
# logs:
-1.20560858664
# M:
0.220722003756
 </file> |

==== First cohort born 1995 ====

^Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_95_95.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -4.93278  Maximum gradient component = 6.89035e-06
# N0:
 0.289033
# q:
 0.432621
# logs:
-1.20468309469
# M:
0.214608667980
 </file> |
|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_95_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -10.7519  Maximum gradient component = 0.000181244
# N0:
 0.286587 0.241295
# q:
 0.387224
# logs:
-1.26799574237
# M:
0.209539869492
 </file> |
|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_95_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -19.7971  Maximum gradient component = 5.18349e-05
# N0:
 0.293470 0.247051 0.483911
# q:
 0.392993
# logs:
-1.44271797754
# M:
0.218665452260
 </file> |
|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_95_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -22.5567  Maximum gradient component = 3.07576e-05
# N0:
 0.371853 0.311810 0.615438 0.769912
# q:
 0.365359
# logs:
-1.30559636690
# M:
0.302854166936
 </file> |

==== First cohort born 1996 ====

^Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_96_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -6.96424  Maximum gradient component = 2.89220e-05
# N0:
 0.243818
# q:
 0.341766
# logs:
-1.49489079550
# M:
0.211927949874
 </file> |
|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_96_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -16.5870  Maximum gradient component = 7.50474e-05
# N0:
 0.268437 0.529506
# q:
 0.353662
# logs:
-1.68478868950
# M:
0.248314995512
 </file> |
|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_96_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -18.1745  Maximum gradient component = 2.66569e-05
# N0:
 0.401105 0.812412 1.04852
# q:
 0.296806
# logs:
-1.36545147740
# M:
0.384113190246
 </file> |
|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_96_99.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -21.8712  Maximum gradient component = 6.70988e-06
# N0:
 0.281835 0.552476 0.683516 0.566695
# q:
 0.396672
# logs:
-1.28111344656
# M:
0.267739682105
 </file> |

==== First cohort born 1997 ====

^Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_97_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -14.9417  Maximum gradient component = 0.000156633
# N0:
 0.443256
# q:
 0.446373
# logs:
-2.63452610841
# M:
0.188376555429
 </file> |
|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_97_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -13.6729  Maximum gradient component = 2.55368e-05
# N0:
 0.645252 0.809032
# q:
 0.398800
# logs:
-1.47663242459
# M:
0.322592116138
 </file> |
|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_97_99.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -17.8498  Maximum gradient component = 1.24022e-05
# N0:
 0.433931 0.524806 0.413599
# q:
 0.514941
# logs:
-1.34998941565
# M:
0.182910597292
 </file> |
|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_monotonic_n3_vs_vpa_97_00.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -25.7355  Maximum gradient component = 0.000543041
# N0:
 0.406884 0.489518 0.380431 0.442819
# q:
 0.539011
# logs:
-1.41912547614
# M:
0.157823692174
 </file> |