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admb_real:n3_cohorts_per_run [2010/09/22 13:10] – lennartfradmb_real:n3_cohorts_per_run [2010/10/27 11:54] (current) – lennartfr
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-===== Model estimating only 3+ year olds =====+ 
 +===== Model estimating only 3 year olds and older =====
  
 In this section we test a model which does not use data for 0-2 year olds, and does not estimate these age groups. It is equivalent to the [[admb_real:admb_real#simple_model|simple model]], with the catch and survey data shifted. In this section we test a model which does not use data for 0-2 year olds, and does not estimate these age groups. It is equivalent to the [[admb_real:admb_real#simple_model|simple model]], with the catch and survey data shifted.
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 === Summary === === Summary ===
  
-TBD.+:!: :!: Unlike for [[admb_real:two_qs_cohorts_per_run|the experiments]] with [[admb_real:admb_real#model_with_two_separate_catchabilities|the model with two catchabilities]], the parameter estimates are in general inside their bounds. This means that the computed standard deviations are meaningful. 
 + 
 +:!: The estimates are sometimes smaller than the corresponding VPA estimates, and sometimes larger, unlike for the model with two catchabilities, where they were always larger. 
 + 
 +:!: There are some issues with stability, especially regarding the number of years we follow a cohort. Although not plotted below, for the experiment with a single cohort born in 1994, it makes a huge difference whether we follow it for 6 or 7 years. 
 + 
 +:!: As more cohorts are added the population sizes at age 3 become more stable, but not always at the levels estimated when only following a single cohort. This can be seen in the following table: 
 + 
 +^ N3<sub>birthyear</sub> ^ N3<sub>1994</sub> ^ N3<sub>1995</sub> ^ N3<sub>1996</sub> ^ N3<sub>1997</sub>  ^ N3<sub>1998</sub> ^ N3<sub>1999</sub> ^ N3<sub>2000</sub>  ^ 
 +^ Single estimate | 0.516109  | 0.364052 |0.343280 |0.893856 | | | | 
 +^ Multiple estimates | 0.803846 | 0.413922 | | | | | | 
 +| |0.628584 | 0.362537 | 0.300540  | | | | | 
 +| | 0.622791| 0.359443 |0.298084| 0.589102| | | | 
 +| | |  0.369516 | 0.306418 | |  | |  |  
 +| | |  0.381369 | 0.316046 | 0.631374 | | |  |  
 +| | | 0.437240 | 0.361336 | 0.727927 | 0.930341 | | |  
 +| | | |  0.405056 | 0.840858 | |  |  | 
 +| | | |   0.503421| 1.07145 | 1.43532 | | |  
 +| | | | 0.297859 | 0.590654 | 0.738234 | 0.622872 | |  
 +| | | | | 0.900099 | 1.17791 | | | 
 +| | | | | 0.389587 | 0.467355 | 0.360528 | | 
 +| | | | | 0.395227 | 0.474633 | 0.367218 | 0.426952 |
  
 ==== First cohort born 1994 ==== ==== First cohort born 1994 ====
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 :!: The run with two cohorts did not converge when the maximum age was set to 10, so is set to 9. :!: The run with two cohorts did not converge when the maximum age was set to 10, so is set to 9.
 ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
-|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_94_94.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -3.37978  Maximum gradient component = 1.95145e-06+|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_94_94.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -3.37978  Maximum gradient component = 1.95145e-06
 # N0: # N0:
  0.516109  0.516109
Line 24: Line 46:
 0.229629359685 0.229629359685
  </file>|  </file>|
-|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_94_95.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -9.55295  Maximum gradient component = 2.32779e-05+|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_94_95.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -9.55295  Maximum gradient component = 2.32779e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.803846 0.413922  0.803846 0.413922
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 0.336813802520 0.336813802520
  </file>|  </file>|
-|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_94_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -12.5230  Maximum gradient component = 7.21299e-05+|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_94_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -12.5230  Maximum gradient component = 7.21299e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.628584 0.362537 0.300540  0.628584 0.362537 0.300540
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 0.289443475648 0.289443475648
  </file>|  </file>|
-|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_94_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -18.7801  Maximum gradient component = 0.000328611+|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_94_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -18.7801  Maximum gradient component = 0.000328611
 # N0: # N0:
  0.622791 0.359443 0.298084 0.589102  0.622791 0.359443 0.298084 0.589102
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 :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**.
 ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
-|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_95_95.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -5.59638  Maximum gradient component = 7.74232e-05+|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_95_95.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -5.59638  Maximum gradient component = 7.74232e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.364052  0.364052
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 0.291272410377 0.291272410377
  </file>|  </file>|
-|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_95_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -10.9818  Maximum gradient component = 6.07228e-05+|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_95_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -10.9818  Maximum gradient component = 6.07228e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.369516 0.306418  0.369516 0.306418
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 0.294287629410 0.294287629410
  </file>|  </file>|
-|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_95_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -17.9526  Maximum gradient component = 4.47329e-05+|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_95_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -17.9526  Maximum gradient component = 4.47329e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.381369 0.316046 0.631374  0.381369 0.316046 0.631374
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 0.304658857253 0.304658857253
  </file>|  </file>|
-|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_95_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -19.9411  Maximum gradient component = 3.61072e-05+|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_95_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -19.9411  Maximum gradient component = 3.61072e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.437240 0.361336 0.727927 0.930341  0.437240 0.361336 0.727927 0.930341
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 :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**.
 ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
-|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_96_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -6.57862  Maximum gradient component = 3.41763e-05+|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_96_96.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -6.57862  Maximum gradient component = 3.41763e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.343280  0.343280
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 0.328278664602 0.328278664602
  </file>|  </file>|
-|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_96_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -13.7544  Maximum gradient component = 3.38158e-06+|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_96_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -13.7544  Maximum gradient component = 3.38158e-06
 # N0: # N0:
  0.405056 0.840858  0.405056 0.840858
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 0.380156075941 0.380156075941
  </file>|  </file>|
-|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_96_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -15.2285  Maximum gradient component = 5.62207e-05+|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_96_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -15.2285  Maximum gradient component = 5.62207e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.503421 1.07145 1.43532  0.503421 1.07145 1.43532
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 0.443069717196 0.443069717196
  </file>|  </file>|
-|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_n3_vs_vpa_96_99.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -18.8363  Maximum gradient component = 8.67845e-05+|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_96_99.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -18.8363  Maximum gradient component = 8.67845e-05
 # N0: # N0:
  0.297859 0.590654 0.738234 0.622872  0.297859 0.590654 0.738234 0.622872
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 :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**.
 ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^
-|1 | |<file txt cod.par> </file>| +|1 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_97_97.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 4  Objective function value = -7.30997  Maximum gradient component = 5.91774e-06 
-|2 | |<file txt cod.par> </file>| +# N0: 
-|3 | |<file txt cod.par> </file>| + 0.893856 
-|4 | |<file txt cod.par> </file>|+# q: 
 + 0.230683 
 +# logs: 
 +-1.41374631937 
 +# M: 
 +0.397902182138 
 + </file>| 
 +|2 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_97_98.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 5  Objective function value = -9.22716  Maximum gradient component = 2.99965e-06 
 +# N0: 
 + 0.900099 1.17791 
 +# q: 
 + 0.252102 
 +# logs: 
 +-1.07669731352 
 +# M: 
 +0.407261698083 
 + </file>| 
 +|3 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_97_99.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 6  Objective function value = -14.2602  Maximum gradient component = 0.000175596 
 +# N0: 
 + 0.389587 0.467355 0.360528 
 +# q: 
 + 0.483771 
 +# logs: 
 +-1.09417574178 
 +# M: 
 +0.138538549318 
 + </file>| 
 +|4 |{{:admb_real:cod_simple_re_catch_n3_vs_vpa_97_00.png?180|}} |<file txt cod.par># Number of parameters = 7  Objective function value = -21.4434  Maximum gradient component = 0.000408809 
 +# N0: 
 + 0.395227 0.474633 0.367218 0.426952 
 +# q: 
 + 0.488868 
 +# logs: 
 +-1.17010474477 
 +# M: 
 +0.144620261549 
 + </file>|
  
  
admb_real/n3_cohorts_per_run.1285161018.txt.gz · Last modified: 2010/09/22 13:10 by lennartfr