admb_real:n3_cohorts_per_run
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admb_real:n3_cohorts_per_run [2010/09/22 12:06] – lennartfr | admb_real:n3_cohorts_per_run [2010/10/27 11:54] (current) – lennartfr | ||
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- | ===== Model estimating only 3+ year olds ===== | ||
- | In this section we test a model which does not use data for 0-2 year olds, and does not estimate these age groups. It is equivalent to the simple model, with the catch and survey data shifted. | + | ===== Model estimating only 3 year olds and older ===== |
- | We perform the same experiment as for x and y, namely trying out different numbers of cohorts which are to be estimated at the same time. | + | In this section we test a model which does not use data for 0-2 year olds, and does not estimate these age groups. It is equivalent to the [[admb_real: |
+ | |||
+ | We perform the same experiment as for [[admb_real: | ||
=== Summary === | === Summary === | ||
- | TBD. | + | :!: :!: Unlike for [[admb_real: |
+ | |||
+ | :!: The estimates are sometimes smaller than the corresponding VPA estimates, and sometimes larger, unlike for the model with two catchabilities, | ||
+ | |||
+ | :!: There are some issues with stability, especially regarding the number of years we follow a cohort. Although not plotted below, for the experiment with a single cohort born in 1994, it makes a huge difference whether we follow it for 6 or 7 years. | ||
+ | |||
+ | :!: As more cohorts are added the population sizes at age 3 become more stable, but not always at the levels estimated when only following a single cohort. This can be seen in the following table: | ||
+ | |||
+ | ^ N3< | ||
+ | ^ Single estimate | 0.516109 | ||
+ | ^ Multiple estimates | 0.803846 | 0.413922 | | | | | | | ||
+ | | |0.628584 | 0.362537 | 0.300540 | ||
+ | | | 0.622791| 0.359443 |0.298084| 0.589102| | | | | ||
+ | | | | 0.369516 | 0.306418 | | | | | | ||
+ | | | | 0.381369 | 0.316046 | 0.631374 | | | | | ||
+ | | | | 0.437240 | 0.361336 | 0.727927 | 0.930341 | | | | ||
+ | | | | | 0.405056 | 0.840858 | | | | | ||
+ | | | | | | ||
+ | | | | | 0.297859 | 0.590654 | 0.738234 | 0.622872 | | | ||
+ | | | | | | 0.900099 | 1.17791 | | | | ||
+ | | | | | | 0.389587 | 0.467355 | 0.360528 | | | ||
+ | | | | | | 0.395227 | 0.474633 | 0.367218 | 0.426952 | | ||
==== First cohort born 1994 ==== | ==== First cohort born 1994 ==== | ||
:!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | ||
+ | :!: The run with two cohorts did not converge when the maximum age was set to 10, so is set to 9. | ||
^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
- | |1 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |1 |{{: |
- | |2 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # N0: |
- | |3 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |
- | |4 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # q: |
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -0.922473038606 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.229629359685 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |2 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.18235361737 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.336813802520 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |3 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.02179235777 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.289443475648 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |4 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.08687795940 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.286208904677 | ||
+ | </ | ||
==== First cohort born 1995 ==== | ==== First cohort born 1995 ==== | ||
:!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | ||
^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
- | |1 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |1 |{{: |
- | |2 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # N0: |
- | |3 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |
- | |4 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # q: |
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.19954713216 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.291272410377 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |2 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.18636245551 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.294287629410 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |3 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.24802508061 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.304658857253 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |4 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.12315927867 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.349501204632 | ||
+ | </ | ||
==== First cohort born 1996 ==== | ==== First cohort born 1996 ==== | ||
:!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | ||
^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
- | |1 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |1 |{{: |
- | |2 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # N0: |
- | |3 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |
- | |4 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # q: |
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.32232734466 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.328278664602 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |2 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.35965206122 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.380156075941 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |3 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.13451875040 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.443069717196 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |4 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.08863375308 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.285142576059 | ||
+ | </ | ||
==== First cohort born 1997 ==== | ==== First cohort born 1997 ==== | ||
:!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | :!: **NOTE** Although the population variables are called N0, they represent the population level at **age 3**. | ||
^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ^ Num. cohorts ^ Trajectories ^ Estimates ^ | ||
- | |1 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |1 |{{: |
- | |2 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # N0: |
- | |3 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | |
- | |4 | |<file txt cod.par> </ | + | # q: |
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.41374631937 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.397902182138 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |2 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.07669731352 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.407261698083 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |3 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.09417574178 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.138538549318 | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | |4 |{{: | ||
+ | # N0: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # q: | ||
+ | | ||
+ | # logs: | ||
+ | -1.17010474477 | ||
+ | # M: | ||
+ | 0.144620261549 | ||
+ | </ | ||
admb_real/n3_cohorts_per_run.1285157212.txt.gz · Last modified: 2010/09/22 12:06 by lennartfr